Week 45
Cashew Market Brief Report
Over the week, offers from Vietnam packers have again firmed up as Vietnam started to buy from Tanzania. Price especially for WW320 had a noticeable increase of about 0,10-0,12$ cents per lb. in just a span of week, making Vietnam almost at par now with Ivory Coast origin. Thus, few buyers seem to be now eyeing for IVC as an alternative considering the quality offer is much better than of Vietnam.
Inshell demand from Vietnam still looking firm as stocks are still reportedly at all-time low. ​Tanzania opening prices have started on high levels which initially has been unreachable for Vietnam processors but then pricing have somehow softened to make it in line with the market.
Overall RCN pricings remain high taking note that West African production is also down by about 15% with most volume already exported out. Demand wise – US & EU demand remains slow with interest mostly to cover Q1 requirements. However, due to concern in RCN production, most processors are taking precautions and would rather refrain from taking commitments until they have a clear view of 2025 crop.
Ocean Freight: Demand in North Europe is said to remain steady expected to have a typical seasonal peak ahead of the Christmas holidays with carrier utilization levels that are strong. Most carriers have announced further rate increases for November.
Week 42
Cashew Market Brief Report
Vietnam Cashew prices had again been seen trending higher especially for WW320 grades that continue to receive a good demand. Pricing have moved up by about 0,10-0,15 $/lb from beginning of October month with big player that reportedly covering at higher levels in the market.
Added to the pressure, are the local processors that are worried as market faces severe shortage of cashew kernels with African RCN that are quite expensive making it difficult for packers to balance their margin cost.
Demand-wise: While EU demand is slowly coming back, high prices remain a challenge, with most opting to still be on sideline. Even China have also started buying, but purchasing power is also weak. On the other hand, Middle East and Russia are now looking to cover 2025 deliveries. However, offers are mostly being quoted by big packers at much premium price; while average packers are being more cautious in offering long term deals.
In conclusion, although demand remains slow, price down trend seems limited considering the issue in overall supply and quality supporting the bullish outlook.
Ocean Freight: recently have softened, but the announcement of Fixed rates and Peak Season Surcharges (PSS)remain unchanged through the first half of October.
Week 42
Almonds Brief Market Report
California Almonds September Position Report has been released recently showing growers crop receipts are ahead of +65% faster than of harvested volume a year ago.
In terms of shipments, year to date recorded a declined -11% due to less carryout.
Overall, Almonds prices continued to remain firm as growers reportedly trying to balance incoming inventories with customer demands. The recent worker strike in East Coast ports, although has been brief, had somehow made an impact in export shipment particularly Europe whose demand are now returning. While, India, ME and Vietnam consumption could also add fuel to the fire.
Sentiment still leaning to an upward pressure on prices in near-term.
This might pursue and trigger more demand pressure long term if the yield falls down below the 2,8B pounds.
Week 41
Cashew Market Brief Report
RCN prices continue to rise ending week 40 with Vietnam shippers/processors realizing their short coverage of inshells for end quarter commitments. Adding fuel to the fire is the low-quality materials coming in from West Africa with expected high prices from other upcoming new crop origins.
As EU buyers continue to procrastinate, Middle east buyers are being more active in covering spot requirements. Hence, availability particularly for WW320 are becoming very limited these as most packers are fully booked until December.
Ocean Freight – FH of October pricings continue to soften as most carriers are now more proactive in adjusting rates to optimize vessel utilization.
Week 41
Almond Market Brief Report
The current crop uncertainty due to hot weather condition continues to firm up the market with most sellers that are still holding back until they get a better assessment on crop numbers.
New crop sales reportedly are going well for growers with a little chance that prices could soften from current levels. Thus, buyers who were initially staying on a sideline are now slowly being seen entering the market to cover their positions.
Furthermore, September turnaround report is expected to be released within this week which allegedly is stronger and could spike the market more strongly at its current footing.
As of October 3, the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) have reportedly reached an agreement to suspend the strike (while negotiations continues) that impacted U.S. East Coast and Gulf ports. Operations have resumed on Friday, October 4. These 3-days port strike has cause disruptions resulting to shipment delays and freight/trucking costs.
Week 40
Cashew Market Brief Report
After weeks of stabilized market, VN cashew offers have again adjusted upwards by about $0,10-0,15 cents per lb over the week specifically for WW320 grades. RCN High Price and expected supply shortages for Vietnam production in coming months remains a major concern.
The sudden increase prompted most EU buyers to again stay on a sideline while Middle East buyers are being more active in covering.
Market outlook for Q4 overall remains bullish.
Ocean Freight: Asia-Europe rates heading to October month weaken reportedly due to excess capacity and slowing demand.
Week 40
Almond Market Brief Report
California Almonds crop expectation reportedly might not reach the initial estimated volume of 3 billion pounds in addition to less carry-over stocks from last year causing most growers still holding off offers up until now.
The main focus for now of most sellers is to get a clear understanding of the crop and would rather push pass the selling objective. Furthermore, new crop sales so far are already good enough for growers with October month that is already filled with contracts previously committed.
Shipping Situation – U.S. East Coast port strike from October looming to cause ripple effect in exporting.